U.S. Economic Data at a Glance

What economic cycle are we in?

Gross Domestic Product

Last update: Jul, 2025

  • Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.0% in the second quarter of 2025 accordind to the advance etimate(July 30,2025:T1). Drivers are the increase in consumer spending and decrease in imports, which are a substraction in the calculation of GDP. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GPD increased 2.4%.

  • Personal consumption expenditures increased 1.4%, compared with 0.5% in the first quarter of 2025, according to the advance estimate(Jul 30,2025:T1).

  • Gross private domestic investment was -15.6% in the second quarter of 2025, compared with 23.8% in the first quarter, according to the advance estimate(july 30,2025:T1). There was a 4.8% increased in equipment in the second quarter of 2025, compared to 23.7% in the first quarter.

  • Government consumption expenditures and gross investment was 0.4% in the second quarter of 2025, compared with -0.6% in the first quarter according to the advance estimate(July 30, 2025:T1),

  • Personal saving was $1 trillion in the second quarter of 2025. The personal saving rate as a percentage of disposable personal income was 4.7% in the second quarter of 2025, compared with 4.3% in the first quarter according to the advance estimate(July 30, 2025:T8).

GPD for 2024

In 2024, the real GDP increased 2.8 percent, compared with an increase of 2.9 percent in 2023, according to the third estimate(March 27, 2025). Drivers are consumer spending, investment, government spending, and exports.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Inflation

Last update: Jul, 2025

The United States employs several different methods to monitor inflation, and it is crucial to comprehend the distinctions among these measures to gain a clear understanding of economic trends.

PCE Inflation

  • Compared to the same month last year, the PCE price index for June 2025:T7 rose by 2.6%. The Federal Reserve targets a long-term PCE inflation rate of 2%

  • Personal income rose by 0.3 percent on a monthly basis in June, according to the estimates published on June 31, 2025:T3.

  • PCE inflation measures prices of goods and services consumed by households and nonprofit institutions, and includes food, energy, housing etc. The PCE inflation is more comprehensive than CPI(consume price index). The PCE inflation includes spending directly by households(you pay), and on behalf of households(someone pays for you). For example: When your employer provides health insurance, government provides medicare etc.

Core PCE Inflation

  • When compared to the same month in the previous year, the core PCE price index rose by 2.8% in Jun, which is slightly higher than the 2.6% increase recorded in May, 2025:T7.

  • Core PCE index is considered a more stable measure of inflation, exclude food and energy prices due to their volatility, focuses on underlying inflation trends, and provides a better understanding of inflationary pressures.

Souce: Bureau of Economic Analysis

CPI (Consumer Price Index)

Last update: Jul, 2025.

  • The annual inflation rate for the United States was 2.7% for the 12 months ending Jun 2025, compared to the previus rate of 2.4% in May 2025, acording to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

  • CPI measures the average change in prices of a basket of goods and services and often used for cost of living adjustments, wage negotiations, social security benefits. Only counts out-of-pocket expenditures(you pay directly)

  • The CPI price index for Jun 2025 increased 0.3% from the preceding month.

Item MoM YoY
CPI overall 0.3 2.7
Food 0.3 3.0
Energy 0.9 -0.8
Services 0.3 3.6
Shelter 0.2 3.8
  • The CPI for Jul 2025 is scheduled to be released on Aug 12, 2025, at 08:30 a.m. (ET).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Last update: Jul, 2025.

  • According to Federal Reserve Economic Data, the consumer price index (CPI) for Jun 2025 increased 2.67% compared the same month over year ago.

Source: Federal Reserve

Interest rates

  • United States Central Bank Rate stands at 4.50%, following the most recent adjustment in May 2025.

Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. At today’s meeting, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25-4.50 percent and to continue reducing the size of our balance sheet.

The new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas:trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. The tariff increases annouced so far have significantly larger than anticipated. All os these policies are still evolving, however, and their effects on the economy remain highly uncertain.

As economic conditions evolve, we will continue to determine the appopriate stance of monetary policy based on the incoming data, the outlook, and the balance of risks.

— Jerome Powell, May 7, 2025.

  • There was a signal in the Jackson Hole’s speech, which marked the end of the four-year cycle of increase in the interest rates by the FED.

  • The new cycle attempts to normalize economy, including indicators like the U.S. interest rate curve, according to the averages of the last hundred years.

  • The decision demonstrates FED’s concern for the lower end of the labor market, while de high end is still very tight.

Normality is a positively sloped yield curve and we think the terminal rate in FED funds is 3%. Where should 10 years be if we’re at 3%? We should at least be 100 to 150 basis point positively sloped.

— Gary Cohn, VP of IBM

  • Some indicators that may be evaluated during 2025 are:

    • Oil.

    • Commodities.

    • Shelter (new tenant rents vs old tenant rents).

Last update: January, 2025.

Chair Powell on a question from Elizabeth Schulze of ABC News(December meeting, 2024). Why do you think it is that inflation is proving to be more stubborn than you’d expected?

I think people are feeling right now is the effect of high prices, not high inflation. So we understand very well that prices went up by a great deal and people really feel that. And it’s prices of food and transportation, and heating your home, and things like that, so there’s tremendous pain in that burst of inflation that was very global. This was everywhere in all the advanced economies at the same time. So now we have inflation itself is way down but people are still feeling high prices and that is really what people are feeling. The best we can do for them, and that’s who we work for, is to get inflation back down to its target and keep it there so that people are earning big, real wage increase so that their wages are going up, their compensation is going up faster than inflation year upon year upon year, and that’s what will restore people’s good feeling about the economy.

That’s what it will take, and that’s what we’re aiming for.

— Jerome Powell, December meeting 2024

Source: Federal Reserve

Labor Market

Last update: May, 2025

  • Total nonnfarm payroll employment increased by 177 thousand in April 2025, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. Employment continued to trended up in health care, transportation and warehousing, financial ectivities, and social assistance. Federal government employment declined.

  • Unemployment rate in Apri 2025 is 4.2% or 7.2 million people. The long-term unemployed(>27 weeks or more) was 1.7 million up by 179 thousand from a year earlier that represents 23.5% of all unemployed people.

  • The labor force participation rate in April 2025 was 62.6%.

  • One important indicator of labor market is the continuing claims that track the number of residents filing for ongoing unemployment benefits in a given week.

  • Another importat labor market indicator is aggregate hours worked. The chart below shows the average weekly hours of all employees, total private. The first thing you see when the economy is slowing down is a reduction in job openings. That is the first wave. The secong wave that you see is the number of hours worked. And that is a very important metric because when you’re cutting hours, the next step is to actually cut positions.

The labor market tightness is the number of job vacancies per unemployed worker, which is a key factor in monetary policymakers’ decisions.

The graph, below sugested by Mick Dueholm and Serdar Ozkan on FRED Blog, show labor market tighness as the ratio of job openings to unemployment. This captures how many job opportunities there are for each person seeking a job.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Departament of Labor

10-Year Treasury bonds

Last update: May, 2025

  • The 10-year Treasury bond yield is a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions. Is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates, influences borrowing costs, impacts the valuation of financial assets, and signals expectations about inflation and economic growth.

  • The chart below shows the United States 10-Year Government Bond yield.

Source: Yahoo finance, FRED

Yield Curve

Source: FRED - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Sectors 2Q24

Overall

Last update: January, 2025

Revenue cash flow remains a challenge that has effect on supply chains, labor market and debt costs, as some of these are backed by revenue. Generally, in these cycles, highly leveraged companies tend to file for bankruptcy which are important to observe, mainly due to volatility. The perception of high interest rates and monetary tightening make it difficult to pass on prices to the consumer, leading business to adjust their processes striving for efficiency. Other behaviors:

  • Temporary rise in unemployment rates, however without sudden moviments. The job losses begin at the lowest rungs in terms of skills, educational attainment, income making capacity. This indicators are being closely monitored by FED officials and the signals can be seen in Mr. Powell’s statements.

  • Decisions by companies towards reducing costs(COGS) and operating expenses(SG&A).

  • Temporary increase in the cost of capital for privet debt.

  • Supply chain reorganization.

Agroindustry

  • 2023 was an incredible year for agriculture, with high productivity for wheat and corn. In 2024, the harvest is a little late(e.g South Dakota area). There was high intensity of rainfall at the beginning of planting with mild temperatutes, causing the crop not to develop as much as in 2023. During the wheat harvest, usually in August, the corn needs more rain to fill the grain, but this year there was not so much during this period.

  • The distortions generated during the pandemic is make 2024 a year of adjusments that are being faced by growers, agricultural auto manufacturing, and machinery and equipment sales, temporarily affeting jobs.

  • Looking for agricultural prices, they are still not good. The expectation is not for a bad year, but it will not be as good as 2023. Sales of new equipment have fallen, making it necessary to adjust costs and expenses in companies such as John Deer and CNH industrial.

Automotive

  • The automotive industry faces many challenges in 2024. Slowing growth, increased competition, supply chain disruptions generated during the pandemic and business decisions caused distortions in costs and prices that grew way above the population’s income and general inflation rates. This process may take a few years to stabilize.

  • The volume of new car sales does not follow the same trend as population growth. It requires a deeper analysis to identify cause-and-effect relationships, but for now, the hypotheses raised are accessibility and the durability of the vehicles acording to Autoline Network (2024).

    • From a price perspective, historically, it takes 25 weeks of average household income to buy a new vehicle. The average household income in 2024 is $75.000 ($1.400 per week) which would be enough to buy a vehicle worth $36.000 dollars.

    • The age of the vehicles on the road in the United States is 12.6 years acording to Parekh and Campau (2024)

    • The average cost of car ownership in 2024 was around $12,000 annually according to BLS (vehicle purchase 46%, fuels 22%, finance charges 3%, repairs 8%, insurance 15%, others 6%)

  • Financial data from auto industry in the second quarter of 2024.

Auto sales by brand 2Q24

  • Reducing costs and prices, increasing household income, and finding more sources of revenue such as subscription services are some options that can be observed in the market.

  • Some car manufacturers are discovering and applying new materials that that awaken the perception of confort and refinement in consumers and this has been reflected in their choices.

Transportation

There was overcapacity in carrier population during the period from 2020 to 2023 due to demand that has been inconsistent over time and is currently undergoing adjustments. However, capacity still presents high values in relation to volumes pressuring agents to adjust their operations in striving for efficiency gains. Some of those carriers are contracting and reducing their fleets sizes in order to move forward. On the other side the carriers population are reduced in 33.200 from december of 2022 to october of 2024.

  • Tender rejections are currently in 6.49% in July 2025 compare to 6.2% in July 2024.

  • Diesel prices are $3.73 per gallon in July 2025, -3.3% compare to $3.86 per gallon in July 2024.

  • Dry van in spot market currently $1.95 per mile -2.9% YoY and -11.9% over six years($2.22-2019).

  • Reefer in spot market currently $2.40 per mile -4.5% YoY and -5.0% over six years($2.53-2019).

  • Flat bed in spot market currently $2.40 per mile 0.8% YoY and -4.6% over six years($2.52-2019).

Last update: July, 2025

Technology

  • In 2025 investments in disruptive technologies continue to show accelerated growth. The highlight has been in data center, generative AI for the cloud, personal computers, smartphone devices, and factory floor which is unlocking possibilities for innovation between interconnected processes such as robotics, augmented reality, and autonomous vehicles.

  • Factors such as macroeconomic, geopolitical environment, and intense competition influence the adoption of technology as alternatives to improve operational efficiency in business.

  • The innovation process has accelerated, driven by the development of large generative AI models, known as foundation models. These foundation models are then utilized by specialized applications that build upon them to perform more specific tasks. Finally, traditional processes are leveraging the applications to achieve efficiency gains, create new processes, and develop new value-added products.

Infraestructure

  • Computing: Amazon, Google, xAi, Microsoft, Nvidia, (OpenAi, Oracle, Softbank)

  • AI foundation models: OpenAI(Msft), Anthropic(Google/Amazon), Cohere(Nvidia), Grok-3(xAi),Gemini-2(Google), DeepSeek-R1(DeepSeek)

  • AI Software Service: Palantir

  • Synthetic data: Hazy(Microsoft), Sogeti, Epistemix, Mostly AI, Facteus, Sythesis AI, Datavant, Statice, TonicAI, SBX Robotics.

  • Data Annotation: Scale AI, Appen, Openxcell, SuperAnnotate, iMerit, Labelbox, Cogitobox, CloudFactory, Hive

Horizontal AI

Horizontal AI refers to AI systems that have a broad range of capabilities and can be applied across multiple industries, domais, or tasks. These systems are often more general-purpose and can be trained on a wide range of data sources(e.g. natural language processing in virtual assistant, general purpose machine learning frameworks like pytorch or tensorflow, cognitive architectures etc.)

  • AI commpanions(autonomous agents and worflows): Adept e Inflection(msft, nvda), Cognosys e graft(goog), Imbue(amzn, nvda)

  • Digital Twins: blackshark.ai (msft), Siemens TeamCenter X, Autodesk Revit NVIDIA (2024)

  • HR: moonhub(goog), smartymeet(amzn)

  • Productivity & knowledge management: essential AI(goog, nvda), Humata(goog), Redactabl(goog)

  • Marketing and sales: Outreach(msft), Speedy(goog)

  • Search: perplexity, twelve labs(nvda)

  • Stell tech: osmo(goog)

  • Software development: Bulder.ai (msft)

Vertical AI

Vertical AI are often designed to perform a specific task or set of tasks within a particular industry or domain, and to integrate with existing systems and workflows within an organization, making them useful for solving specific business problems.Theses systems are typically narrow in their focus and are trained on a specific dataset or set of rules to excel in the specific area(e.g. img recognition for medical diagnosis, sentiment analysis tools for custormer service, predictive maintenance for mfg equipment etc).

  • Agriculture: Bowery(goog)

  • Education: Elsa(goog)

  • Healthcare/life science: Charm, Generate Biomedicine, Genesis therapeutics, Lambic, Inceptive, Superliminal, flyweel(nvda), layer health, seismic, tidalflow(goog), paige, flyweel(msft)

  • Manufacturing: machina labs(nvda), nobble.ai(msft), veo robotics/symbotic, agility robotics, bionichive, mantis robotic, Modjoul, Vimaan(amzn).

  • Real Estate: jitty(goog)

  • Warehousing and logisticis: flymingo(amzn), gatik, invia, nautilus labs, netradyne, nextbillionai(msft) outtrider, serve(nvda)

  • Waste management: amp robotics(msft)

Last update: February, 2025

Housing market

  • The U.S. median home price in 4Q24 is $419.200 compared to $423.200 last year, a decrease of 0.95% and -5.3% compared to the price peak in 4Q22.

  • Spring is busiest time for the housing market in U.S. starting in April and peaks in June when the average number of existing homes sold per day increases significantly, and historically, home prices tend to rise during this period. On the other hand, in 2021 and 2022 home prices rose 16.7% and 13%, respectively, way above the personal income and this factor may change the effect of this year season. With builders facing challenges in passing on costs to consumers, improving proceses can be a relevant factor in avoiding or minimizing the effects on margins.

  • The plot below shows the behaviors from the perspective of supply and demand.

  • In 2025 home buyers are looking for better prices and interest rates, two family homes with smarter technologies and other factors that may be relevant such as a gyms, ceilling fans, energy star rated windows, patio, hardwood floors in the living areas, and side-by-side kitchen sink, and close to fun and public transportation.

  • One modality that has been gaining traction is built-to-rent commnunities driving for some factors:

    • Affordability constraints: Rising home prices and higher mortgage rates have priced many out of homeownership.
    • Desire for flexibility and amenities: Renters increasingly seek convenient, maintenance-coworking facilities.
    • Demographics: Millenials, GenZ, and retirees are opting for rental lifestyles.
    • Changing household dynamics: The growing number of single-person households. The share of people living alone increased every decade from 1940 to 2020 according to Bureau (2023). In 2020 was 27.6% compared to 26.7% in 2010.

  • Some indicators that may be evaluated during the next three months are:

    • Mortgage rates, increasing inventories, listing price, time homes are on market.
    • Net new home orders that represent the number of new sales contracts that have been finalized and signed by buyers minus customer home order cancellations booked.
    • Companies financial guidance such as Lennar, Toll Brothers, D.R. Horton, Pultegroup and KB Home.

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data ;US Census Bureau

Manufacturing

  • In 2024, the United States manufatured over 18% of global high-technology goods.This scenario is changing rapidly.

  • Looking at gross private domestric investment, it has been growing 7.6% in 2024. Below is an overview of private investments the manufacturing sector.

  • Looking at the manufacturing plants construction sites.

    • Semiconductor: TSMC (Phenix, AZ:TSM: fab1 production pilot Dec24, fab2 under construction, fab3 2nm chips next 10 years) , Wolfspeed(Siler City Chatham County,NC and Mohawk Valley,NY:WOLF), Intel(Licking County, OH:INTC), SK Hynix(West Lafayette, IN), IBM(Hudson Valley, NY), GlobalFoundries(Essex, VT:GSF), Samsung(Taylor, TX:SSNLF), Texas Instruments(Sherman, TX:TXN)

    • Batteries: Sakuu & SK on, Toyota (Liberty, NC:Production pilot Apr25 300k EV, 150K PHEV, 800K HEV annual production, 10 lines for EV and 14 lines for Hybrids), LG Energy(Queen Creek, AZ), Redwood (Reno, NV), Panasonic(De Soto, KS:WIP Start production in Spring25), Ford SK (Stanton, TN:WIP Delay until 2027), SK on/Nissan (Canton, MS: Start 2028), Ultium Cells(Spring Hill, TN:2027 and Lansing MI:2025)

    • Biomanufacturing: Moderna(Marlborough,MA), Pfizer(Peral River, NY), Thermo Fisher(Greenville, NC), Novo Nordisk(Clayton, NC), Fujifilm(Holly Springs, NC), Genentech(Oceanside, CA)

    • Heavy Industry: Norsk Hydro(Cassopolis, MI), Altex Heat Exchanger(Columbus, MS), Nucor(Kingman, AZ), GE Appliances(Louisville, KY), JSW Steel(Mingo Junction, Ohio)

    • Clean Power: Tesla Energy, Buffalo Branch Wind, Skipjack Offshore Energy, Engie NA, GE Hitachi SMR(RWRX-300), TerraPower, X-Energy, Hyperion Power Generation. Westinghouse eVinci SMR. Ultra Safe Nuclear Comporation(USNC)

    • Clean Energy Manufacturing: Boom Supersonic(Greensboro, NC), Electric Hydrogen(Devens, MA), Siemens Gamesa(Port of Coeuumans, NY)

Training and education

  • Training programs In the training and labor force perspective, several ongoing initiatives such as educational programs, some specific to women in the semiconductor field such as Fresh Start Semiconductor Program PBS NewsHour (2024).

  • Partnership between Toyota battery plant and Randolph and other Community Colleges to provide initial training(Jan2025).

  • Community college are crucial in preparing young people for entry-level positions in U.S. manufacturing. In 2023, there are approximately 1,476 community colleges in the United States according to Wellington and Morse (2023) . These institutions offer two-year programs, vocational training, and pathways to four-year universities. California, Texas, and New York hosting the largest numbers. Community college students also are among the more diverse in postsecondary education acording to Education (2024)

Some stats about community colleges that I find at Parker (2024)

  • 51% of students are 21 years old or younger

  • 80% of college students who begin their education aspire to attain a bachelor’s degree or higher.

  • Community colleges generate 16.6 billion dollars in revenue from tuition fees.

  • 2/3 of undergraduate students attended a community college after high school

References

Autoline Network. 2024. “Red Alert: New Car Sales Have Stopped Growing,” February. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2wHh6sduVw.
Bureau, US Census. 2023. “Share of One-Person Households More Than Tripled from 1940 to 2020.” https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/06/more-than-a-quarter-all-households-have-one-person.html.
Education, U. S. Department of. 2024. “Community Colleges: Building Pathways to the Future.” https://blog.ed.gov/2024/04/community-colleges-building-pathways-to-the-future/.
NVIDIA. 2024. “Building Digital Twins of Foxconn’s Robotic Factories,” June. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjpwGgmt57U.
Parekh, Nishant, and Todd Campau. 2024. “Average Age of Vehicles Hits New Record in 2024.” IHS Markit, May. https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/research-analysis/average-age-vehicles-united-states-2024.html.
Parker, Alvin. 2024. “Community College Statistics of 2024.” https://www.prosperityforamerica.org/community-college-statistics/.
PBS NewsHour. 2024. “How Arizona Is Building the Workforce to Manufacture Semiconductors in the u.s.” June. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uR6xaHmqsDM.
Wellington, Sam, and Robert Morse. 2023. “An Analysis of What’s in the U.S. News Community College Directory.” //www.usnews.com/education/blogs/college-rankings-blog/articles/2023-07-13/an-analysis-of-whats-in-the-u-s-news-community-college-directory.